The CBO: wrong about everything–

45gh.,b71–aug. 2017

“cbo does two things. It scores legislation and it tells you the impact on the federal budget. It is nonpartisan … It also has no power whatsoever. It is strictly advisory.” — Doug Holtz-Eakin, Congressional Budget Office director under Bush 43, in The Washington Post, 3/14/17

The aforementioned Doug Holtz-Eakin took to Twitter: “Mulvaney’s words are a disgrace, reflect more poorly on him than cbo, and show budget ignorance. [He] should apologize.” Alice Rivlin, cbo director under Jimmy Carter, sniffed to The Hill: “I think it is unfortunate, and that Mulvaney damages his own credibility by blaming the cbo.” Speaker Paul Ryan flew to the cbo’s defense in Roll Call, declaring: “It is important that we have a scorekeeper … It’s important that we have a referee.”

The very notion that Republicans might use alternate sources to score the Senate gop health bill brought GQ’s Jay Willis to apoplexy; he denounced the prospect as “absolute lunacy” and “bullsh-t” and “fraudulent.” In Forbes, Stan Collender decried “Trump’s attempt at fiscal terrorism against cbo” via “vicious troll-like attacks.” Bernie Sanders spokesman Josh Miller-Lewis scolded: “The nonpartisan experts at the cbo should not have their work undercut by an Administration that is desperate to sign legislation into law that will throw millions of Americans off of their health insurance.” Because that’s nine times worse than 9/11, every year (or, as Sanders says, “yee-ah”).

The fact is, the cbo is as “nonpartisan” as The Swamp. Which is to say, not at all. It serves the Administrative State, the Shadow Government, the agencies and bureaucracies peopled almost entirely by dedicated leftists. The cbo has been a devastatingly effective choke point for conservative policy since its inception in 1974.

That cbo directors have been both Republicans and Democrats is of zero consequence. When Obama’s man Doug Elmendorf’s term expired in January, the gop installed Keith Hall as the new cbo bigwig, but don’t expect any shakeup. The Wall Street Journal describes the former Bush 43 staff economist as fitting the “mold of past cbo directors.”

Mold is right. What difference does a cbo figurehead make if liberal assumptions are baked into virtually every cbo assessment? If every gop legislation it scores is assumed to be mean-spirited and punitive? And here’s proof positive that the cbo is a leftist institution run by leftist ideologues: it is utterly and dramatically incorrect, all the time, year in and year out, with no consequences whatsoever:

History of Fail–CBO—

  • “cbo predicted that in 2016 there would be 23 million getting policies through the [Obamacare] exchanges. The actual number was 10.4 million during the first half of the year…” — FactCheck.org, 3/13/17
  • “cbo projects that real gdp will increase by 2.3 percent [in 2011] and by 2.7 percent [in 2012] … cbo projects that economic growth will slow [in 2013] before picking up again, averaging 3.6 percent per year from 2013 through 2016.” — cbo’s Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update. Real gdp figures: 2011 gdp growth was 1.68 percent, not 2.3; in 2012 it was 1.28 percent, not 2.7. None of the 2013 to 2016 figures even approached the 3.6 percent gdp growth the cbo forecast. 2013 was 2.66 percent, 2014 was 2.49 percent, 2015 was 1.88 percent, and 2016 was a pathetic 1.96 percent.
  • Zero Hedge, on the cbo’s August 2014 gdp growth “revision” to 1.5 percent, after having forecast 3.1 perc— cbo Budget Update, apparently “surprised” that Obamanomics wasn’t working, in August 2014
  • cbo Budget Update, apparently “surprised” that Obamanomics wasn’t working, in August 2014
  • Obamacare exchange program selling health policies without medical underwriting would make money for the government — $8 billion over three years, 2/11/14
  • “The cbo admits [its new estimate of 2.5 million Americans] is a ‘substantially larger’ and ‘considerably higher’ subtraction to the labor force [due to Obamacare] than the mere 800,000 the budget office estimated in 2010.” — The Wall Street Journal, 2/7/14
  • The cbo Score of the Obamacare Risk Corridor Makes No Sense.” — The Federalist, on a cbo report predicting a discredited Obamacare exchange program selling health policies without medical underwriting would make money for the government — $8 billion over three years, 2/11/14
  • “The cbo admits [its new estimate of 2.5 million Americans] is a ‘substantially larger’ and ‘considerably higher’ subtraction to the labor force [due to Obamacare] than the mere 800,000 the budget office estimated in 2010.” — The Wall Street Journal, 2/7/14
  • “cbo Releases Latest Budget Forecast: Hilarity Ensues.” — Zero Hedge, noting that the cbo’s celebratory new forecast of an $845 billion budget deficit (“less than $1 trillion!”) had been predicted to be a $585 billion deficit by the same cbo just one short year before — a 40 percent error, 2/5/13
  • “Their [cbo’s] initial estimate of a $4 trillion budget increase [from Obama’s fake ‘spending cuts’] was wrong … the full impact of the Obama tax cut raises deficits by 15 percent to $4.6 trillion over the next decade. Oops.” — Zero Hedge,
  • cbo back in 2001, net U.S. indebtedness in 2011 would be negative $2.436 trillion, the ratio of debt held by the public to gdp would be 4.8 percent, total budget surplus would be $889 billion, and gdp would be $16.9 trillion … [T]he cbo was off by tens of trillions.” — Zero Hedge, 8/24/11
  • “[T]he cbo’s [revised] long-term projections of Medicare spending have steadily increased … In 2005, the cbo projected that Medicare would cost $1.5 trillion in 2050. Two years later the same cbo projected that this cost would reach $2.8 trillion in 2050. And in 2009, it projected that it would be $3 trillion [in 2050] instead. The … projected cost doubled in four years.” — Veronique de Rugy, The Hill, 10/25/11
  • “[I]n appropriating of concepts from Alternative Universe theories, the cbo somehow estimates that the [Obama] stimulus created up to 3.3 million jobs.” — Zero Hedge, 8/24/10. Two years later, as reported by aei’s James Pethokoukis, the cbo admitted that the number of jobs was more likely between 200,000 and 1.5 million, at a cost of up to $4 million per job.

Source: Forbes

  • 23 million people getting kicked off their health insurance [under the gop plan]?  Jonathan Gruber, who was secretly under [a $400,000] contract with the Obama Administration.” — The Weekly Standard, 11/16/14

“Its scoring of Obamacare was not just wrong, it was clearly corrupt. cbo literally brought in the architect of Obamacare to be the advisor on scoring the very Obamacare legislation that he helped write.

  • Then cbo Director] Doug Elmendorf … adopted the scoring models for Obamacare given to him by … Jonathan Gruber. These inaccurate models were key to cbo’s assertion that Obamacare would be good for health insurance markets and reduce the deficit.” — Americans for Tax Reform, 11/21/14
  • the 2013 Senate immigration bill. There and only there, Elmendorf’s cbo … produced a dynamic score. It just so happens that this immigration bill was a priority of the Obama Administration…” T]his bill was written in a tortured way to make sure cbo did not score the mandate as taxes.
  • Lack of transparency is a huge political advantage.
  •  Garbage In, Garbage Out– Trump’s [budget surplus] calculations rest on the assumption that real gdp will increase 3 percent year-over-year by 2020. But the cbo says not so fast. The nonpartisan agency pegs its estimate around 1.8 percent. . But, as the cbo itself admits on their current website, “most of the processes that guide cbo’s work have been in place since the early days of the agency in the 1970s.” Dynamic scoring is mysteriously mia. “If you want to understand the utter absurdity of the cbo’s predictions of health insurance coverage under gop health care proposals, all you have to do is look at the three major cbo health care bills from the last two years … Even though these three bills spend vastly different sums on trying to cover the uninsured, the end result — in the cbo’s mind — seems to always be the same.” — Avik Roy, on cbo forecasts that 22 to 23 million would lose insurance in all three cases no matter what was in the gop bills, in Forbes, 6/27/17
  • “The cbo — over and over again — produced reports based on Keynesian methodology to claim that Obama’s so-called stimulus was creating millions of jobs even as the unemployment rate was climbing.” — Daniel Mitchell, economist, in Forbes, 11/17/14
  • “If you are serious about real health reform, you must abolish the Congressional Budget Office because it lies.” — Newt Gingrich, 11/6/11
  • “[G]iven the inaccuracy of the Congressional Budget Office’s projections … the agency should drop the Keynesian economic models … The cbo’s consistently flawed scoring of the cost of bills is used by Congress to justify legislation that rarely performs as promised and drags down the economy.” — Veronique de Rugy, The Hill, 10/25/11
  • “Congressional Budget Office Says We Can Maximize Long-Run Economic Output with 100 Percent Tax Rates.” — Daniel Mitchell, finding in the cbo’s 2011 Economic and Budget an assertion that any increase in taxes — no matter how large — would improve U.S. economic performance with no negative effects.
  • “The cbo was established by the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 … to provide Congress with independent analyses of the budgetary impact of legislation … The first director of the cbo was Alice Rivlin, a Brookings Institution economist who later became Bill Clinton’s omb director and [then] vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Described … as ‘politically liberal,’ Rivlin hired all of the initial staff and instituted [Keynesian] procedures and methodologies.” — The Wall Street Journal, 11/18/98
  • During the Obama Regime, the cbo morphed from a liberal policy-wonk workshop into a full-tilt, far-left sabotage factory. The gop must face facts: the cbo is unfixable. It’s way past time to not only drain the cbo swamp, but shutter it for good.
  • source—stated above, rush, hilaity ensuses, veronique de rugy, mick mulvaney, wash examiner, holly harvey, newt,

 

 

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