14 lessons from the GOP Obamacare debacle–23l.,b13.14
The Obamacare train wreck was a failure for President Trump and a disaster for House Republicans. That is, it was worse for Republicans, because they had been at it for so long, but it was plenty bad for Trump. When Speaker Paul Ryan pulled the GOP repeal-and-replace bill Friday afternoon, he said, “We will need time to reflect on how we got to this moment.” For that reflection, here, in no particular order, are 14 lessons from the Obamacare debacle:
Don’t over-promise. Absent a national emergency, Congress cannot do big things fast.
Jobs, jobs, jobs. The economy remains the public’s number-one concern. Yes, unemployment is far down from its peak in 2009, but many Americans are making less than they did years ago, and economic anxieties remain high. Trump won the presidency on a pledge to create more and better-paying jobs.
Find more votes Paul Ryan has 237 Republicans and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has 52. The GOP has virtually no room for error.
Start with giveaways, then move to harder stuff. The GOP Obamacare proposal was a bill that would have cut the federal deficit in part by reducing the number of Americans with health coverage
‘The Art of the Deal’ doesn’t work with ideologically-driven politicians, If the president wants to succeed in Washington, he’ll have to learn how to deal with people who aren’t in it just for the money.
Nancy Pelosi was right. The former Speaker and current House Minority Leader said Trump made a “rookie’s error” in bringing the Obamacare measure to a finale too quickly, , in 2009-2010 it took Democrats more than a year to pass Obamacare, and they had a huge majority in the House and a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.
Trump and the House Republicans have different priorities and agendas. So the first legislative effort Trump made was entirely dependent on doctrinaire House Republicans, who for seven years haven’t been able to agree among themselves on replacing Obamacare.
Boehner was right about the House Freedom Caucus. In an appearance last month, the former Speaker laughed at the notion that Republicans could agree on an Obamacare replacement.
Keep it simple. Ryan and the GOP leadership came up with a Rube Goldberg scenario for passing Obamacare repeal-and-replace. There was a three-step plan, concessions to Senate reconciliation, and the insistence that Obamacare had to come in sequence before tax reform, the budget, infrastructure or anything else.
Ryan is on probation, “We were a 10-year opposition party where being against things was the easy thing to do,” the Speaker said.
On big-ticket items, the president leads Congress, not the other way around.
The arcs of Obamacare failure and GOP outrage are out of sync. Republicans were maddest at Obamacare before it actually went into effect; it did not take hold until years after its passage and is only now showing real signs of potential collapse. So Republican zeal to get rid of Obamacare had diminished by the time Obamacare became a major problem and a danger for catastrophic failure.
CBO estimates matter. The GOP bill suffered a terrible blow when the Congressional Budget Office estimated the plan would cause 24 million fewer people to have coverage by a decade from now. Ryan tried to make a virtue of that — many people would be exercising the freedom not to buy an insurance policy.
It’s still early. It won’t kill the Trump presidency — provided Trump racks up some big accomplishments in his first year.
source– byron york, wash examiner.