Weak and Getting Weaker

Weak and Getting Weaker:–58h.,b58

Clinton, moreover, has huge vulnerabilities. She lacks many basic political skills, and she is a hostage to fortune—in both the usual way, as the heir to an incumbent president, and in the unusual one of being the subject of an FBI investigation.

When you add up all of the data, there are four reasons to suspect Trump’s chances in the general election are incredibly slim.

(1) The appeal of Trump was supposed to be that he would expand the electorate by bringing home white voters.

(2) If this view of the general election is true, then you’d expect to see Trump’s weakness showing up in general election state polling.  For a Republican to win in 2016, he absolutely must win North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and at least a few other purplish states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Hampshire.

(3) Trump supporters look at such numbers and argue that the general election is months and months away.

(4) The Trump nomination no longer seems like a political earthquake that would realign the tectonic plates  of American politics. Before Trump abandoned his quasinationalist populism, you could see how a Trump victory might change the Republican party and disrupt the political order in a way that could ultimately help the GOP That view is now inoperative.

(5).          He wants the Republican nomination, and he is perfectly happy to brutalize the party to get it. There will be no consensus building. Only submission and capitulation. That’s his prerogative, of course. Trump owes the GOP just as much as the GOP owes him—which is to say: exactly nothing.

source weekly standard, jonathan v last

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